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Black Friday ad pullbacks could hurt returns, new data suggests

Ecommerce brands cutting advertising spend during Black Friday week could be missing one of the most efficient periods of the year, according to new research.

AI attribution platform Billy Grace analysed advertising performance across ecommerce and omnichannel businesses during the 2025 peak season.

It found median return on ad spend increased by around 26 per cent between the September-to-November run-up and Black Friday week, while cost per order fell to its lowest level of the season.

The figure was around 18 per cent below the pre-Black Friday average.

Advertising costs did rise as competition intensified, with median CPMs increasing from around €6.50 to €8.83 during peak week.

However, Billy Grace said higher conversion rates more than compensated for the increase.

Steven Marsé, insights manager at Billy Grace, said: “Every peak season, marketers are told the same story: hold your nerve on Black Friday and returns collapse.

“Our data says the opposite. The busiest day of the year was also the most efficient, and the channels that looked weakest under last-click were often the ones bringing in the most new customers.”

The company said traditional last-click attribution could be contributing to the perception that advertising becomes less effective during Black Friday.

The measurement method gives credit for a sale to the final marketing touchpoint before purchase, potentially understating the role played by channels such as social media and video earlier in the customer journey.

Billy Grace’s analysis also found that around 66 per cent of orders during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period came from new customers, with that proportion remaining broadly consistent in the run-up to Christmas.

Reddit recorded the highest share of new customers at 88 per cent, followed by Pinterest at 77 per cent and YouTube at 67 per cent.

The findings are included in Billy Grace’s 2026 Black Friday Playbook, which recommends brands build demand ahead of November, avoid automatically cutting budgets during Black Friday week and maintain activity into the pre-Christmas period.

This was posted in Bdaily's Members' News section by Rob McDonald .